HDFC Bank MD Aditya Puri feels economy is improving, sees growth at 7% ahead

Aditya Puri, MD, HDFC Bank, feels things have been improving for better over the past few months on the back of upbeat stock market sentiment, existing projects getting unclogged and clear policies been set out. He expects interest rates to soften by the end of this year and sees 7% growth in the medium-to-long term.

HDFC Bank is now considered as a top-most valued brand. Did you expect this and secondly how are you feeling now after getting this award?

Did I expect this or not is a different story. But since 3-4 years when I have been doing interviews with you we did talk about how we went to semi urban and rural areas...we always said that we arguably are the premier brand. So when an outside agency said that we are number one, we thank them and secondly we wanted to project to our customers that we offer complete brand of financial services without any difficulty and that we will deliver what they want in a fair and transparent manner at the right price. Everyone in the bank is thrilled that what we do has been recognised. This encourages us to put in double efforts.

Can we say that by end of this fiscal credit demand will see improvement and on the lending side, are we looking at some sort of softening?

We have reached the bottom and we are improving. There has been a turn around and a slight uptick in the GDP growth rate. The fact that inflation has come within control other than food inflation shows that. I think we will be benefited by lower oil prices, so inflation should also come under control. According to me things are improving as the stock market has improved, existing projects are been unclogged, clear policies are being set out, plans on bigger problems of fiscal deficit, agriculture policy, attracting investment and FDI, creating employment has been specified. But to expect all of it to be in place so fast, I think is too much and it will be better if they have a clear understanding which they have. We will be somewhere around 5.3-5.5% this year in GDP and if policies are in place then medium-to-long term growth should be 7%.

Do you see rates coming down may be last quarter?

I think rates will come down by the end of this year. For this the RBI governor needs clear understanding on inflation and fiscal deficit. I don't think interest rate at this point of time will bring in a major turn around. Because rates for corporate borrowings, personal and car loans are down at this point of time and there is not much demand...so when it picks up RBI can always infuse liquidity by reducing SLR and CRR. So, I think we are in the right trajectory and dollar rupee is stable.

There are talks on foreign investments and their limits, do you see light at the end of the tunnel?

I am sure achche din aanewale hai. World depends on hope, till now ours is not rejected and it will be positive we hope.

What is your view on global economy, what is your birds eye view?

US will do well. They have turned the trajectory, their growth rate will be more than what was predicted. Europe still has to solve problem on the financial side, but it will still not have a negative growth. Japan depends on how their collaboration with India will turnaround even as China has slowed down. Concerns over ending of QE 2 is over done, whatever is done has been priced in and even if QE 2 ends you will see more money coming into India because US stock market has been priced on the basis of zero volatility. So I think a part of the world will do well, a part will struggle. India in this environment has a great chance because our problems and solutions are defined.