Five factors that could decide what way the Sensex moves next

NEW DELHI: The Indian market has become an underperformer from being one of the top performing markets in the calendar year 2014. The S&P BSE Sensex, which is down over 10 per cent from its record high of 30,024.74, has erased gains made so far in the year 2015.

It is the worst-performing market among major global indices so far in the year. However, analysts are of the view that the India growth story is still intact and, therefore, long-term investors should use this short-term correction as an opportunity.

In the short term, investors should brace for more corrections which could be anywhere in the range of 3-5 per cent on either side, and the second leg of the bull market could start anytime from now and June, say experts.

"I personally feel that may be some more fall can happen and I have never believed in the word consolidation. It is going to be a 3% to 4% to 5% correction in the Nifty," says Mehraboon Irani, Principal & Head-Private Client Group Business, Nirmal Bang Securities.

"I believe that the second leg of the bull market could start anytime between now and June, and that is where a new fresh opportunity will emerge. At the moment I feel valuations are too stretched and we need to fall a little bit more from here," he adds.

But corrections are part of every bull market, advise experts, adding that investors who are looking to enter the Indian markets should have a minimum investment time horizon of 3-5 years.

"It has been a classic case where from a point of time when everything was going right for India, somehow we are in an environment where suddenly all the negative news have started coming together, right from subdued monsoon forecast to oil price rebound from the lows of 52 to the highs of 60s now," says Rajat Rajgarhia, Managing Director - Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Securities.

"We are sitting at three very important points right now, which will decide where the next 5% move is happening - corporate results of PSU banks, rise in crude oil prices, and FII outflows," he adds.

Bombay Stock Exchange - BSE