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Bajaj Auto: Q4 was in keeping with expectation
Posted on 25th May 2019
Bajaj auto’s Q4FY19 Ebitda at Rs 11.6 bn was in line with estimates (Nomura: `11.6 bn, Consensus: Rs 11.8 bn). While revenues were 2% higher than our estimate, Ebitda margin at 15.7% was a bit below our estimate of 16%. Management refrained from giving any volume guidance for FY20 given tough market conditions in India. It said 3W demand is likely to remain tepid in the near term due to a slowdown in India and Egypt. 2W exports are doing well in Africa but stagnant in LatAm and declining in the Middle East.

We factor in volume growth of 4%/-3% in domestic 2Ws and 6%/2% in overall volumes for Bajaj Auto over FY20-21F. We expect continuation of aggressive market share gain strategy in FY20F. New models like Platina 110cc, Pulsar Neon (150 & 180) and Avenger 160 offer higher value to the customer, and we expect a similar strategy for upcoming products in the 125cc segment. Thus, margins are likely to remain under pressure. There should be some benefit though from lower commodity prices and lower volumes of CT100, which had negative margins. We factor in 16.3%/16% margins over FY20/21F compared to 16.5% for the company in FY19 (down 60/30bps).

We expect partial absorption of costs, similar to ABS in Pulsar Neon variants, which would put pressure on competitor margins as well. We see a risk the industry is unable to pass on all regulatory costs over FY20-21, so margins may drop further. Hence, we maintain Reduce on TVS (TVSL IN) where our FY20-21 earnings estimates are 10-20% below consensus.

Related Companies: Bajaj Auto Limited   

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Posted on 18th July 2019
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Demand for digitally skilled talent to grow at 35 pc CAGR:NASSCOM
Posted on 18th July 2019
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Posted on 18th July 2019
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How HDFC disrupted itself
Posted on 18th July 2019
Aditya (Puri) decided to travel to California to take a close look at the disruptions that were being discussed.

In September 2014, Mastercard Inc., a leading global payments and technology company that connects consumers, business, merchants, issuers and governments around the world, organised the trip for Aditya, then chairperson of its advisory committee for the Asia-Pacific region.


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